In a European economy undergoing multiple changes, logistics real estate will play a pivotal role in terms of jobs, competitiveness and growth. And France has undeniable assets that will enable it to benefit from this underlying trend.
Since the health crisis, there have been numerous shocks synonymous with disruptions in geopolitics and transition with impacts on all asset classes. While the logistics sector has been rapidly impacted by falling values, notably due to the upward trend in interest rates since 2022, it has rebounded rapidly since the end of 2023 in the market for listed and unlisted real estate companies. Against a backdrop of economic slowdown, this rate of rebound in the sector reflects investors’ medium- and long-term expectations of the potential of the real estate sector and the entire logistics industry, especially since the geo-fragmentation of trade.
Admittedly, France’s position has always been an asset for the logistics sector due to its geographical location and its high-quality motorway, airport and maritime infrastructure. The two factors – the health crisis and the strategic position – explain France’s attractiveness. The need for greater European sovereignty over sourcing and production chains in key sectors, with economic partners such as Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland, makes France the strategic hub for an “essential” redistribution of goods across part of the eurozone and Europe.
Moreover, a few figures point to the acceleration of activity since the health crisis and the war in Ukraine: in France, e-commerce increased from 9.9% in 2019 to almost 15% in 2024. Related freight turnover was up by almost 40% for the full year 2024, compared to 2020. Revenue from e-commerce-related postal and mail activities is up by almost 50%, mainly in line with B to C, while delivery services above a certain amount are free of charge to the consumer.
Transport and warehousing turnover is up by 50% compared to 2020, with turnover just for storage 30% higher compared to 2020 (+18% for refrigeration versus +32% for non-refrigeration), while turnover for port handling is up by almost 30% and almost 55% for non-port handling.
Base of the logistics framework in a territorial approach
The structural acceleration of demand has been met by the quality of supply: the 3700 logistics platforms covering more than 10 000 m2 and a total area of 90 million m2, are an asset, especially as their distribution is balanced between the various established hubs (18% in Île-de-France, 17% in Hauts-de-France, 13% in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, 11% in Grand Est), around Paris, Lille, Lyon and Marseilles and the rest of the territories (5% on average for the other French regions). While stock in all areas is concentrated in Île-de-France due to its central location, Marseilles has seen the strongest upward trend in new areas over the past ten years: almost 14% of the total built in France.
Beyond the geographical distribution, and implicitly of land development, the sectoral distribution of the industry also testifies to the functional versatility of the French platforms and their competitiveness throughout the country, another asset: according to data from France Logistique1, 32% of products transported are associated with commerce, 20% with industry, 25% with transport and 14% with warehousing, 9% for other uses. In terms of transport, logistics platforms account for 30% of transport activity for manufactured goods, 27% for food, 15% for construction materials and 28% for other manufactured-industrial products.
From human capital to artificial intelligence
Officially, according to data from France Logistique, 10% of jobs are associated with the logistics sector in the narrower sense. An analysis of the different sectors suggests a more global contribution of the logistics industry in terms of employment and contribution to GDP. Indeed, according to our calculations, its minimum contribution would on average have been 18% and 22% of GDP between 2000 and 2023, taking into account the cross-disciplinary nature of logistics with other sectors. The sector combines a classification of 25 trades, ranging from engineers (1 to 2.2% depending on the region), drivers/delivery drivers (25 to 30% for drivers versus 15 to 21% for couriers) to qualified warehouse keepers (12 to 15% depending on the region).
The sophistication of platforms and the supply chain and the maximisation of productivity explain the growth in the recruitment of profiles from the worlds of engineering, industrial robotics2, digitalisation and artificial intelligence: the players must deploy solutions for piloting, monitoring and tracking risks in a context of climate transition and sustainable development. French R&D is doing well in these areas, and there are many responsible industrial applications (particularly in the “E” of ESG) for the sector. We therefore need to cultivate our talent pool or, as Voltaire would have said, “we need to cultivate our garden” by offering them the opportunities and the scope of interdisciplinarity that the sector allows.
In retrospect, the “France Logistique 2025”3 report published in 2016 and co-authored by the Ministries of the Economy (Industry and Digital Affairs), the Environment (and Climate) and Transport understood that the sector’s infrastructure and its territorial distribution could be key factors in terms of growth and energy transition. While in 2016 the terminology used was that of green growth, since 2022, issues of sovereignty and technological disruptions – including the role of artificial intelligence in many areas of logistics activities – have made it clear that the sector plays a major role in the context of “reindustrialisation” and “hyper-industrialisation” for sustainable growth. Beyond this production-intensive logistics, last-mile logistics, urban, parking and traffic logistics are also needed to build “the city on the city,” in a functional approach to building a more sustainable city.
The French logistics sector, through its contributions to employment, industrial competitiveness and potential growth, is identified by investors as a responsible performance vector. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition: government support and political stability are key. A word to the wise …
1 France Logistique was established in 2020. It is the association that represents private players in logistics and freight transport in France, and whose founding members are professional organisations (Afilog, AUTF, CGF, OTRE and Union TLF).
2 Logisticians, 3PL providers, large distribution groups (Decathlon, Uniqlo…), and even e-commerce players, use robotic solutions such as those developed by Exotec, a pioneer in the field since 2015.
3 The “France Logistics 2025” national strategy was based on five pillars: 1. Make the France platform a global reference; 2. Develop human capital; 3. Make the digital transition a vector of logistics performance; 4. Use logistics as a lever to transform industrial policies and energy transition; 5. Establish and animate governance, integrate logistics.
Swiss Life Asset Managers is developing high-quality logistics properties and distribution parks in Europe, to accompany them on their way to a sustainable future.
