Economic Research won the "Forecast Accuracy Award" for the third time after 2015 and 2017 for the best GDP and inflation forecast for Switzerland in 2019. Furthermore, Swiss Life Asset Managers also wins the award for the best forecast in the Eurozone. Forecasts are compared from around 30 institutes.
Consensus Economics, the world’s leading macroeconomic forecast survey firm, has announced the winners of the 2019 “Forecast Accuracy Awards”. The institute selects the best forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. Swiss Life Asset Managers won the prize for the best forecast of Swiss GDP and inflation for the third time. Swiss Life Asset Managers also made the most reliable forecast for the Eurozone. Consensus Economics compared the estimates of around 30 participating institutes for its evaluation.
Marc Brütsch, Chef Economist, Swiss Life Asset Managers: "Our forecasts for GDP growth in 2019 in the Eurozone and Switzerland were far more cautious at the start of 2018 than most other institutes. Increasing uncertainty over the trade dispute and Brexit then actually triggered the expected cooling of global economic dynamism. At the beginning of 2018, for example, we only expected GDP growth of 1.3% for the Eurozone and Switzerland in 2019, whereas the consensus forecast at that time was 1.8% for the Eurozone and 1.7% for Switzerland. Finally, GDP growth in the Eurozone came to 1.2% in 2019. In Switzerland, the 2019 value ended up at 0.9%. We are pleased that our forecasts were so close to the actual development."
Forecast of Eurozone GDP growth in 2019 and actual result
2019 GDP Switzerland growth forecast and actual result
Bleak outlook for 2020
The Economic Research team at Swiss Life Asset Managers has already reviewed the forecasts for 2020 several times due to the coronavirus. For Switzerland, Swiss Life Asset Managers now anticipates a decline of its real gross domestic product of -3.1% and an average inflation rate of -0.5%. For the Eurozone, the current forecast for GDP stands at -5.8% and for annual inflation at 0.2%. "Uncertainty is currently exceptionally high as a result of the lockdown measures and the ensuing slump in economic activity. For example, the forecasts currently available for annual GDP changes in the eurozone range from -13.0% to -3.1%," says Marc Brütsch.
“Perspectives”, Swiss Life Asset Managers’ current estimates of the economic situation in industrialised and emerging countries as well as of the financial and real estate markets, is available here.
More information on the methodology of Consensus Economics and its determination of the accuracy of forecasts issued by survey participants: ConsensusEconomics